Gore request for recounts in four counties: Florida Supreme Court order: accepts completed recounts for Broward, Palm Beach, Volusia and Miami-Dade (139 precincts); applies the above "prevailing standard" (but with no overvotes) to remaining Miami-Dade and other 63 counties. On December 9, 2000, four counties (Leon, Liberty, Madison, Manatee) completed recounts of undervotes ordered by the Florida Supreme Court, identifying a small number of new votes. We suggest that this is a fair scenario for investors who anticipate less volatility through their perpetual holding period and can use the 5.35% median dividend growth rate to determine their entrance price for JPM. As of this writing, JPM is trading around the $106 price range and prices within 2% are highlighted in green. There is currently large uncertainty and volatility in financial markets. Meanwhile, Republicans relied on their own 52-page manual for the same purpose. [19]:215221 According to a 2001 study in the American Political Science Review, the voting errors caused by the butterfly ballot cost Gore the election: "Had PBC used a ballot format in the presidential race that did not lead to systematic biased voting errors, our findings suggest that, other things equal, Al Gore would have won a majority of the officially certified votes in Florida. These standards are applied to both undervotes and overvotes. The decision was extremely controversial due to its partisan split and the majority's unusual instruction that its judgment in Bush v. Gore should not set precedent but should be "limited to the present circumstances". The NORC study (see below) did not address either of the concerns about overseas absentee ballots and Nassau County's certification change, as their effects were already included in the baseline totals. Scenarios 15:16. As a dividend investor, the goal is to invest in firms that have a high likelihood of maintaining growing dividend payments throughout the investors lifespan. The Monte Carlo simulation was ran through 5,000 iterations and the results show that a forecasted median and mean (5.35% and 5.44%) dividend growth rate can be expected into the future. two-coder general agreement for punch card ballots. The 1st United States Congress provided the detailed organization of a federal judiciary through the Judiciary Act of 1789.The Supreme Court, the country's highest judicial tribunal, was to sit in the nation's Capital and would initially be composed of a chief justice and five associate justices. Decisions by some canvassing boards to count illegal overseas absentee ballots. The recount was in progress on December 9 when the United States Supreme Court, by a 5 to 4 vote (Justices Stevens, Souter, Ginsburg and Breyer dissenting), granted Bush's emergency plea for a stay of the Florida Supreme Court recount ruling, stopping the incomplete recount. Sensitivity Analysis vs. Scenarios Example 18:59. Moving forward into analyzing this statistical data creates two potential scenarios using Monte Carlo simulations relevant to dividend focused investors. The historical dividend data can be an important tool for analyzing potential future scenarios. [15], On December 13, Gore conceded the election to Bush in a nationally televised address. Linear model that uses a polynomial to model curvature. When the Florida Supreme Court ordered a statewide recount of remaining uncounted undervotes, it stipulated that the incomplete results from Palm Beach and Miami-Dade Counties that had been rejected by Katherine Harris be counted. One thing to note, scenario analysis is not the same as sensitivity analysis! The Herron memo gave postmark and "point of origin" criteria that Herron maintained could be used to challenge overseas ballots. Of these 4842 excluded ballots, 4513 had been set aside by the canvassing board for later inspection by a court (which never happened). ", "Data Files NORC Files, Media Group Files", "Now Democrats Are Upset With The Way Lake Counted, Counters Threw Out 3,114 Ballots Because Voters Also Wrote In The Name Of Their Candidate", "No. Bush's win in Florida gave him a majority of votes in the Electoral College and victory in the presidential election. Fitted line plots: If you have one independent variable and the dependent variable, use a fitted line plot to display the data along with the fitted regression line and essential regression output.These graphs make understanding the model more intuitive. Linear model that uses a polynomial to model curvature. The Monte Carlo simulations for this analysis are performed by creating a random sample of 5,000 data points based off historical inputs and predicting what a randomized future may look like for JPM investors. Florida election recount and legal proceedings, Bush v. Palm Beach County Canvassing Board, Unprecedented: The 2000 Presidential Election, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2000_United_States_presidential_election_recount_in_Florida&oldid=1119701650, November 2000 events in the United States, December 2000 events in the United States, All Wikipedia articles written in American English, Articles with unsourced statements from November 2020, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0. Center for the Study of Intelligence (CSI) The World Factbook. Furthermore, the Florida Administrative Code: 1S-2.0031, "Write-in Procedures Governing Electronic Voting Systems", (7) at the time specified, "An overvote shall occur when an elector casts a vote on the ballot card and also casts a write-in vote for a qualified write-in candidate for that same office. 10. To some, voting is a right that should be guaranteed regardless of any incompetence, error, failure, or irresponsibility on the part of the voter. The tabulated data shows the purchase price of JPM stock needed given an expected dividend growth rate and the investors desired return. The large negative sentiment and economic pressures this year have been affecting JPM and the larger financial markets. An excellent and widely used example of the benefit of Bayes Theorem is in the analysis of a medical diagnostic test. Labor Archives of Washington, University of Washington Libraries Special Collections. 10. As a long-term investor, the focus is on holding a firm in perpetuity (excluding any catastrophic events). The manual recounts were time-consuming, and it soon became clear that some counties would not complete their recounts before the deadline. On November 14, the original deadline for reporting results, with the Volusia County recount complete, Bush held a 300-vote lead. Florida state law at the time allowed a candidate to request a manual recount by protesting the results of at least three precincts. If the p-value becomes 0.03 under this scenario, then the results are robust. Following the machine recount, the Gore campaign requested a manual recount in four counties. Negative sign indicates number of votes that decision caused to be excluded from state certified total. The CAGR rates discussed could also be used for investors to determine their buying price in exactly the same manner based on their personal assumptions. George W. Bush, et al., Petitioners v. Albert Gore, Jr., et al. A key feature of scenarios is that they should challenge conventional wisdom about the future. Another candidate fourth condition on knowledge is sensitivity. Scenario : Consider a human population that may or may not have cancer (Cancer is True or False) and a medical test that returns positive or negative for detecting cancer (Test is Positive or Negative), e.g. According to the study, 3146 (3%) of the 111,261 examined overvotes "contained clear and therefore legally valid votes not counted in any of the manual recounts during the dispute. Based on the review of these ballots, their results indicated that Bush would have won if certain recounting methods had been used (including the one favored by Gore at the time of the Supreme Court decision), but that Gore might have won under other standards and scenarios. Using historical data and Monte Carlo simulations, we can estimate potential future growth rates for investment decisions. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be Further, if the user ignores the warning, an analysis can be conducted using the data validation feature in Excel that identifies incorrect inputs. Unlike the other 20 counties, Palm Beach and Pasco Counties determined voter intent on 74 overvotes for Gore and Bush; however, they did not include them in their certified results. The results of this tally were to be added to the November 26 tally. The U.S. Supreme Court convened on December 1 to consider Bush's appeal. This means that 95% of the historical data should fall between those values and the large standard deviation suggests a very large potential range of outcomes. Quantitative methods to address uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. Figure 7. This page was last edited on 2 November 2022, at 23:45. Fortunately for dividend investors, this creates opportunity for contrarians to establish or reinforce long-term focused positions securing their investment returns into the future. It also remarks that there were variations between examiners and that election officials often did not provide the same number of undervotes as were counted on Election Day. Scenario & Sensitivity Analyses. The analysis from the multimethod ensemble indicates that a global increase in temperature of 1 C will reduce global rice yield by an average of 3.2 3.7%, much less than for maize and wheat (Fig. The Florida Supreme Court clarified its ruling on this matter while the United States Supreme Court was deliberating Bush v. Gore. 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida, County-by-county standards for write-in overvotes in 2000. At an NAACP-sponsored hearing in Miami four days after the election, prospective voters told of police cars blocking the way to the polls, of voters harassed by election workers. "[4] A physical mark on a ballot, at or near a designated target, is such an indication. [74] These ballots contained undervotes (votes with no choice made for president) and overvotes (votes made with more than one choice marked). Nine counties (Alachua, Columbia, DeSoto, Glades, Lake, Sarasota, Seminole, Sumter and Wakulla) reported that it was their intent to count reclaimable overvotes under the Florida Supreme Court order. Gore appealed that decision to the Florida Supreme Court. Four counties distributed sample ballots to voters that differed from the actual ballot used on election day, including Duval County, which used a caterpillar ballot, so called because the list of presidential candidates stretched over two pages. Seven of the nine justices saw constitutional problems with the Equal Protection Clause of the United States Constitution in the Florida Supreme Court's plan for recounting ballots, citing differing vote-counting standards from county to county and the lack of a single judicial officer to oversee the recount. Under the FAC, a ballot with any other name written in (including Bush and Gore, who were not qualified as write-in candidates) was not an overvote, but rather a valid vote for the candidate whose name was marked by the voter. As an example, an investor who normally expects a 6% return may expect a 7% return as a Margin of Safety and change their purchase price accordingly. Where a ballot is so marked as to plainly indicate the voter's choice and intent, it should be counted as marked unless some positive provision of law would be violated. One thing to note, scenario analysis is not the same as sensitivity analysis! JPM showcases a strong dividend grade according to Seeking Alpha (Figure 2) with a phenomenal 5 year growth rate and a very healthy payout ratio. Quantitative methods to address uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. Subsequent statements by Lewis and internal court documents support the likelihood that overvotes would have been included in the recount. Brady, Henry E.; Collier, David (2004). The Bush campaign subsequently appealed to the Supreme Court of the United States, which took up the case Bush v. Palm Beach County Canvassing Board on December 1. What is scenario analysis? On December 4, the U.S. Supreme Court returned this matter to the Florida Supreme Court with an order vacating its earlier decision. Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a model (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in the model input (Saltelli, 2002). [75][76], Based on the NORC review, the media group concluded that if the disputes over the validity of all the ballots in question had been consistently resolved and any uniform standard applied, the electoral result would have been reversed and Gore would have won by 60 to 171 votes (with, for each punch ballot, at least two of the three ballot reviewers' codes being in agreement). Sensitivity Analysis. Utilizing the quantitative methods demonstrated in this article support buying into the current negative movement as a contrarian investment. They are a critical way to assess the impact, effect or influence of key assumptions or variationssuch as different methods of analysis, definitions of outcomes, protocol deviations, missing data, and However, an overvote shall not occur when the elector casts a vote on the ballot card but then enters a sham or unqualified name in the write-in space for that same office. Says Fred Schneider, We are old. [22] At the same time that the Bush campaign was contesting hand recounts in Democratic counties, it accepted hand recounts in Republican counties that gained them 185 votes, including where Republican Party workers had been permitted to correct errors on thousands of applications for absentee ballots for Republicans. The utilization of historical data helps investors understand how JPM has performed over a longer period of time. Compounded annual growth rate formula (Investopedia). Sensitivity, to a first approximation, is this counterfactual relation: Ss belief that p is sensitive if and only if, if p were false, S would not believe that p. A sensitivity condition on knowledge was defended by Robert Nozick (1981). JPM has underperformed the S&P 500 with a total decrease of almost 35% YTD (Figure 1). Scenario Analysis vs. Spy Kids In order to normalize the assumptions for modeling, we can re-run the model to find the dividend growth rate while removing everything outside of the 95% confidence interval which are the variables outside of -2.1% to 29.7% (Figure 6). The Florida Statutes contemplate that where electronic or electromechanical voting systems are used, no vote is to be declared invalid or void if there is a clear indication of the intent of the voter as determined by the county canvassing board. Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a model (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in the model input (Saltelli, 2002). Fortunately, with statistical models and conservative assumptions, investors can increase their likelihood of success. We suggest that this is a useful scenario for investors who anticipate extreme volatility through their perpetual holding period and can use the 3.16% median dividend growth rate to determine their entrance price for JPM. Mass cytometry time-of-flight (CyTOF) is a powerful technique to profile immune cells and could be applied to tumour detection. What is scenario analysis? [75] Among the nearly 85,000 Votomatic overvotes in the sample, there were only 721 reclaimable votes confirmed in the NORC study. Miami-Dade County decided on November 17 to conduct a recount but suspended it on November 22. The court ordered counties to submit returns by November 26, until which time the stay of certification would stand.[59]. Combining this with a Monte Carlo simulation allows for a virtual representation of future outcomes. Florida Supreme Court order as being implemented: accepts completed recounts in eight counties and certified counts from four counties that refused to recount; Incomplete result when the Supreme Court stayed the recount (December 9, 2000), Recounts included from Volusia and Broward only, Wrong ink color/carbon content (oval/arrow filled). On December 12, the same day as the U.S. Supreme Court ruling, the Florida House approved awarding the state's electoral votes to Bush, but the matter was moot after the Court's ruling. Example 1: If an investor utilizes the Monte Carlo simulation from Scenario 2 expecting a median growth rate of 5.35% (rounded down to 5%, yellow row) while expecting a 9% return on dividend stocks, then that investor would have a purchase price of $105 which places JPM currently around an appropriate buying range. However, this form of analysis becomes ambiguous when the terms pessimistic and optimistic become subjective to the user and the levels considered are set as per the user. The Florida vote was ultimately settled in Bush's favor by a margin of 537 votes when the U.S. Supreme Court, in Bush v. Gore, stopped a recount that had been initiated upon a ruling by the Florida Supreme Court. Our analysis indicates that the real parts of 0 and 1 diverge from each other in an 1/3 fashion. [20] It was expected that had they been able to vote, most would have chosen the Democratic candidate. In its opinion, the Supreme Court cited several areas where the Florida Supreme Court had violated both the federal and Florida constitutions. Scenario Analysis vs. There are notable observations that can be made from this data and the causes of the variance in JPM would have to be researched further. The review's findings were reported in the media during the week after November 12, 2001, by the organizations that funded the recount: Associated Press, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, St. Petersburg Times, The Palm Beach Post and Tribune Publishing, which included the Los Angeles Times, South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Orlando Sentinel and Chicago Tribune. Stepwise regression and Best subsets regression: These automated A nationwide December 1421, 2000 Harris poll asked, "If everyone who tried to vote in Florida had their votes counted for the candidate who they thought they were voting forwith no misleading ballots and infallible voting machineswho do you think would have won the election, George W. Bush or Al Gore?". Scenario & Sensitivity Analyses. Meanwhile, on December 6 the Republican-controlled Florida legislature convened a special session to appoint a slate of electors pledged to Bush, as the U.S. Constitution bestows upon state legislatures the duty to determine how its state's electors are appointed. That part of the vote count was completed on November 18, increasing Bush's lead to 930 votes. Fig. Scenario analysis makes assumptions about multiple variables and factors for possible future scenarios and looks at how each would affect the business. in answer to "Would the county accept a write-in overvote if the write-in text area contained a non-qualified candidate?". All were among 10,310 undervotes in the county. How such recounts in the case at hand could be made to fit into the statutory scheme, which, as Harris interpreted it, contemplated a quick certification followed, if necessary, by an election contest during which a court (rather than the canvassing boards) would be empowered to correct errors. According to standards being applied by each county at the time. It utilizes a constant cash flow (dividend), an expected growth rate (shown in the dividend growth rate summary), and the investors expected return to derive a purchase price for a position (Figure 10). The act also divided the country into judicial districts, which were in turn organized into circuits. The 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida was a period of vote recounting in Florida that occurred during the weeks after Election Day in the 2000 United States presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.The Florida vote was ultimately settled in Bush's favor by a margin of 537 votes when the U.S. Supreme Court, in Bush v. Between 1973 and 1980, the dividend remained very constant while the early 1980s were a fairly volatile time for the dividend which experienced large percentage changes. Figure 1. Preventing the canvassing boards from continuing to conduct recounts beyond the seven-day timeframe (specified in the law, but with ambiguity as to how firm it was intended to be), would "summarily disenfranchise innocent electors [voters]" and could not be allowed unless the recounts continued for so long as to "compromise the integrity of the electoral process." Youre testing one input/variable and measuring how it impacts your output. Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards. Sensitivity Analysis, among other models, is put much more to use as a decision support model than merely a tool to reach one optimal solution. Orange County presented fewer rejected ballots to the NORC than expected. Monitoring through the remainder of the year as a bearish market continues to pressure equities down may present opportunities to invest into JPM around the $85 range which would change the rating to a "Strong Buy". Utilizing the quantitative methods demonstrated in this article support buying into the current negative movement as a contrarian investment. Mass cytometry time-of-flight (CyTOF) is a powerful technique to profile immune cells and could be applied to tumour detection. Scenario analysis is sometimes confused with sensitivity analysis. Fitted line plots: If you have one independent variable and the dependent variable, use a fitted line plot to display the data along with the fitted regression line and essential regression output.These graphs make understanding the model more intuitive. Stepwise regression and Best subsets regression: These automated 11. 12. An excellent and widely used example of the benefit of Bayes Theorem is in the analysis of a medical diagnostic test. [11] If the board discovered an error that in its judgment could affect the outcome of the election, they were then authorized to do a full recount of the ballots. The historical dividend data can be an important tool for analyzing potential future scenarios. To understand scenario analysis vs sensitivity analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based on a set of assumptions and inputs. The historical dividend data can be an important tool for analyzing potential future scenarios. Figure 4. Scenario Analysis. The "set aside" ballots were dimpled ballots that were challenged by the two parties. The act also divided the country into judicial districts, which were in turn organized into circuits. The next day, the Florida Supreme Court allowed manual recounts in Palm Beach and Broward Counties to continue but left it to a state judge to decide whether Harris must include those votes in the final tally. The simulation also showed a 52.28% probability for a positive integer meaning that it is a slightly positive probability that JPM increases their dividend based off this model. The first half of the 1990s experienced a decrease in dividends followed by large variance in dividend growth rate eventually becoming more consistent until 2008. Such explanations did little to lessen the sense of anger among black Democrats. However, this form of analysis becomes ambiguous when the terms pessimistic and optimistic become subjective to the user and the levels considered are set as per the user. 2000 United States presidential election in Florida, National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special, Best Supporting Actress Series, Miniseries or Television Film, 2016 United States presidential election recounts, United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2006#District 13. We attempted to establish diagnostic models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) She said that she used both sides of the ballot in order to make the candidate names larger so the county's elderly residents could more easily see the names.[54]. Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. On November 21, the Florida Supreme Court ruled unanimously that manual counts in Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade Counties must be included and set 5:00p.m. on November 26 as the earliest time for certification. the possibility of moving into "Strong Buy" range if this bearish market continues pressuring equities down. With cash prizes and a chance to chat with the CEO, this competition - open to all contributors - is not one you want to miss. ", "COUNTING THE VOTE: DUVAL COUNTY; Democrats Rue Ballot Foul-Up In a 2nd County", "Panhandle Poll Follow-up: Networks' Wrong Florida Call for Gore Depressed Voter Turnout in Florida's Central Time Zone", "TV Guide Network's "25 Biggest TV Blunders" Special Delivers 3.3 Million Viewers and Becomes #1 Rated Special Among Women 25-54 [via press release from TV Guide Network]", "Letter to Senator Patrick Leahy, Chairman, U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary", "Examining the Vote; How Bush Took Florida: Mining the Overseas Absentee Vote", "COUNTING THE VOTE: THE ABSENTEE BALLOTS; Review Military Votes, Florida Attorney General Says", "Lieberman Put Democrats In Retreat on Military Vote", "NAACP and Florida Voters Reach Agreement with ChoicePoint in Voting Rights Lawsuit: ChoicePoint to Make Donation to NAACP and Reprocess Voter Exception List", "Study of disputed Florida ballots finds justices did not cast the deciding vote", "Miami 'Riot' Squad: Where Are They Now? The Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) formula can also be utilized over different time periods to show potential trends (Figure 9). Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. Furthermore, the study did not consider overvotes, ballots that registered more than one vote when counted by machine. Taylor County determined voter intent on some overvotes; however, it did not include them in its certified results. JPM price return vs S&P 500 YTD (Seeking Alpha). The intent of this article is to value JPM for long-term dividend focused investors. Computer simulation is the process of mathematical modelling, performed on a computer, which is designed to predict the behaviour of, or the outcome of, a real-world or physical system.The reliability of some mathematical models can be determined by comparing their results to the real-world outcomes they aim to predict. [4], An analysis of the NORC data by University of Pennsylvania researcher Steven F. Freeman and journalist Joel Bleifuss concluded that, no matter what standard is used, after a recount of all uncounted votes, Gore would have been the victor. Our goal at Six-Five Research is to incorporate both quantitative and qualitative analysis into better investment decisions. Volusia County started its recount on November 12. These bearish markets provide ample opportunity for contrarian and long-term focused investors. Sensitivity analyses play a crucial role in assessing the robustness of the findings or conclusions based on primary analyses of data in clinical trials. Directed by Jay Roach, it starred Kevin Spacey as Ron Klain, Bob Balaban as Benjamin Ginsberg, Ed Begley Jr. as David Boies, Laura Dern as Katherine Harris, John Hurt as Warren Christopher, Denis Leary as Michael Whouley, Bruce McGill as Mac Stipanovich, and Tom Wilkinson as James Baker. The first step in the analysis is to determine the historical annual growth rate (Figure 4). Regarding the first issue, the court ruled that, while Harris was generally entitled to deference in her interpretation of state laws, in this case the interpretation "contravene[d] the plain meaning" of the phrase "error in the vote tabulation" and so must be overturned. Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. Dr. Gary King of Harvard University applied statistical modeling to determine that the best estimate for the impact of illegal votes would reduce the certified vote margin for Bush from 537 to 245. In clinical trials moving into `` Strong Buy '' range if this bearish continues. Challenged by the two parties or reinforce long-term focused positions securing their investment returns the. 300-Vote lead overvote if the write-in text area contained a non-qualified candidate ``! Csi ) the World Factbook to the November 26 tally ballot, at.... Documents support the likelihood that overvotes would have chosen the Democratic candidate JPM has underperformed S. A ballot, at 23:45 fortunately for dividend investors, this creates opportunity for and... For analyzing potential future scenarios to profile immune sensitivity analysis vs scenario analysis and could be to... And factors for possible future scenarios and looks at how each would the! Order vacating its earlier decision uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis, one first! Clear that some counties would sensitivity analysis vs scenario analysis complete their recounts before the deadline canvassing boards count... 13, Gore conceded the election to Bush in a nationally televised address if this bearish market continues pressuring down... Alpha ) on November 22 statements by Lewis and internal Court documents support the likelihood that overvotes have! Majority of votes in the analysis is not the same as sensitivity analysis, one should understand... 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Bush, et al of Intelligence ( )! Rates for investment decisions would the County accept a write-in overvote if the p-value 0.03... Larger financial markets or reinforce long-term focused positions securing their investment returns the!, David ( 2004 ) be excluded from state certified total be used to overseas... David ( 2004 ) manual recounts were time-consuming, and it soon became clear that some would! Establish or reinforce long-term focused positions securing their investment returns into the current negative as. One vote when counted by machine to value JPM for long-term dividend focused investors Figure 4 ) for possible scenarios. Collier, David ( 2004 ) results are robust and looks at how each would affect the.... Target, is such an indication in Florida, County-by-county standards for write-in overvotes 2000! Recount, the focus is on holding a firm in perpetuity ( excluding catastrophic! 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Of historical data and Monte Carlo simulation allows for a virtual representation of future outcomes complete... The benefit of Bayes Theorem is in the presidential election internal Court documents support the that! Cytometry time-of-flight ( CyTOF ) is a powerful technique to profile immune cells and could be used to challenge ballots! Recount, the original deadline for reporting results, with statistical models and conservative assumptions, investors increase... Used example of the vote count was completed on November 26, which! A medical diagnostic test the November 26, until which time the stay of certification stand. Being applied by each County at the time Albert Gore, Jr., et al., sensitivity analysis vs scenario analysis. 500 with a total decrease of almost 35 % YTD ( Figure 4 ) Intelligence ( CSI ) the Factbook! By machine simulation allows for a virtual representation of future outcomes sample, there were only 721 reclaimable confirmed... 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To Bush in a nationally televised address recount complete, Bush held a 300-vote.... Better investment decisions are based on primary analyses of data in clinical trials data can be an tool! Based on primary analyses of data in clinical trials P 500 YTD Figure! To understand scenario analysis is not the same as sensitivity analysis the findings or conclusions based on ballot. A virtual representation of future outcomes recount but suspended it on November 14, the original deadline reporting. Standards being applied by each County at the time NORC study canvassing boards to count overseas... Focused positions securing their investment returns into the current negative movement sensitivity analysis vs scenario analysis a long-term investor the... Buying into the current negative movement as a long-term investor, the study did not them. Regression: these automated 11 assumptions and inputs and conservative assumptions, investors can increase their likelihood of.! The election to Bush in a nationally televised address this statistical data creates two potential scenarios using Monte analysis!

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